Experts forecast moderate economic growth in 2026
The U.S. economy is expected to see moderate growth, with the Federal Reserve (Fed) also expected to reduce interest rates in 2026 gradually. Some forecasts predict rates will settle between 3% and 3.25% by the end of the year.
Why it matters: The Fed in 2025 was focused on controlling inflation and stabilizing the labor market by implementing three rate cuts and maintaining interest rates between 3.50% to 3.75%. Financial institutions released varying forecasts on whether the U.S. economy will see little or no rate cuts, reflecting continued uncertainty in monetary policy.
By the numbers: Economists expect U.S. job growth to slow and the unemployment rate to gradually rise this year. The World Bank predicts that in 2026, the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will grow moderately by 2.2%, compared to 2.1% in 2025, and global GDP will slow by one-tenth of a percent to 2.6%.
The big picture: Geopolitical tensions, trade dynamics and monetary policy uncertainty will continue to impact the economic outlook. Factors include energy markets following U.S. operations in Venezuela and ongoing Russia-Ukraine and Middle East conflicts. Tariffs continue to contribute to inflationary pressures and will likely remain a factor in trade dynamics and cost planning. The highly anticipated Supreme Court ruling on the legality of President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to enact tariffs could potential impact trade policy, and a change in the Fed chair position at the end of Jerome Powell’s term could potentially shift monetary policy priorities if a successor has a different policy outlook.
The state of the labor market:
- The United States added 50,000 jobs in December. With revisions in previous months, October and November figures were 76,000 lower than previously reported. U.S. unemployment growth in 2025 was the weakest since the recession in 2020.
- The unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, a 0.2% decline from November. Unemployment claims rose to 208,000 in the week through January 3, this was 8,000 more than the previous week. The labor force participation rate in December fell slightly to 62.4%.
- The Consumer Price Index in December rose 2.7% from the prior year, remaining unchanged from November and down from 3% in September.
- The Producer Price Index rose 0.2% in November, a modest increase of 0.2% from the month prior.
U.S. container imports rise month over month
U.S. container imports increased 2% in December from the previous month but declined 5.9% compared to last year. Total U.S. import volumes finished 2025 down 0.4% compared to 2024, marked by significant monthly volatility in volumes driven by tariffs and ongoing trade negotiations.
According to Drewry’s World Container Index, global container rates for the week ending on January 15 decreased 4% due to drops in rates on the Transpacific and Asia-Europe trade routes.
Why it matters: While import volumes are softening, carriers are holding firm on general rate increases and surcharges tied to geopolitical risks, fuel costs and ongoing vessel repositioning across major trade lanes.
By the numbers:
- S. import volumes from China continue to decline with 2025 imports at 32% of total global imports compared to 38% in 2024.
- The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index, a measure of global shipping rates, traded at 39 points for the week ending January 9, down 8.93 points from the previous week.
- Freight rates rebounded in mid-December, due to strong year-end demand, though the increase is uncertain with TEU-mile demand growth still lagging behind supply growth.
More shipping news:
- Ocean carriers are adding capacity to serve the Asia-Northern Europe trade route as shippers race to move cargo before factories in China close for the Lunar New Year holiday Tuesday, February 17.
- Maersk, a Dannish shipping company, completed the first Red Sea voyage in nearly two years, as shipping companies consider returning to the critical Asia-Europe trade route.
U.S. trucking industry faces mixed signs of recovery
After several years of a freight recession, the industry showed gradual signs of stabilization in the past quarter but grappled with sector-specific and regional volatility.
Yes, but driver shortages and equipment availability continue to limit capacity, especially in spot markets, pushing load-to-truck ratios higher. Analysts say recovery isn’t guaranteed, citing global trade tensions, domestic regulatory shifts and uncertainty with fuel prices.
By the numbers:
- For the week ending on January 12, the average per-gallon price for diesel fuel across the United States fell to $3.45, down 2 cents from the week before and 14 cents lower than the previous year.
- The net orders for North American Class 8 heavy-duty trucks and tractors in December more than doubled from the previous month and were up 21% the previous year.
- The Cass Freight Index for U.S. shipments in November rose 2.7% from October, when seasonally adjusted, but were down 7.6% from last year.
- Spot rates saw modest upward movement in the second half of 2025, particularly for vans and flatbeds, and capacity tightened.
- The average national per-mile spot van rate for December rose $2.29 on the DAT One marketplace, up 20 cents from November and nearly 9% from a year earlier on seasonal demand and severe weather.
Commodity markets face continued volatility in 2026
Commodity markets in 2025 navigated through a complex mix of supply constraints, geopolitical events and shifting demand, setting the stage for continued uncertainty and volatility in 2026.
Why it matters: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly involving major energy-and-resource-producing regions, have periodically disrupted supply expectations and added risk premiums to prices. The impact of tariffs also reshaped global trade flows and heightened market risk across major commodities. And demand growth from renewable energy and hyperscale projects, like AI data centers, outpaced mining and smelting capacity, which were constrained by high energy costs, tight supply and disruptions to production worldwide.
Commodities market roundup:
- Copper reached record highs in early January, driven by strong demand and supply constraints from mine incidents and long development times to operate new mines.
- Aluminum prices soared above $3,000 per ton, the highest in over three years, amid global supply tightening and robust demand.
- Large-diameter steel and PVC conduit demand and lead times continue to rise due to hyperscale project activity.
- PVC resin prices are flat compared to last month but continue to trend down. Lead times for large-diameter and special-radius bends remain elevated.
- The planned tariff rate increase on lumber-based imports, including upholstered furniture, household cabinets and vanities, is delayed for one year and will remain at 25% after the United States announced productive negotiations with its trade partners.
- Crude oil prices fell below $59 per barrel following a U.S. operation that shifted control of Venezuelan oil exports despite ongoing tensions in Iran. Meanwhile, Russian crude tumbled to approximately $34 a barrel in late December, partly due to U.S. imposed sanctions on Russia’s top two oil producers.