U.S.-Iran ceasefire eases tensions temporarily
A two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran was reached April 7, just before a deadline set by President Trump. The ceasefire follows conflict that began in late February, involving U.S.-Israeli strikes and Iranian retaliatory attacks.
The big picture: The conflicts affected the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime corridor for crude oil and liquefied natural gas exports, leading to crude oil prices above $100 per barrel.
Why it matters: The ceasefire offers temporary relief and a chance for diplomatic talks, but underlying geopolitical risks and economic impacts, such as elevated energy costs and extended transit times, remain high.
By the numbers: Oil prices declined after the ceasefire announcement, with the United States suspending active strikes, and Iran said the Strait of Hormuz will remain open as negotiations take place.
The bottom line: Long-term stability will depend on a diplomatic agreement and stabilizing the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding areas.
The U.S. labor market shows a mixed pattern
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. economy added 178,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in March. This was a surprisingly strong report, with most economists predicting gains of approximately 65,000 jobs.
Zoom in: Growth was strongest in healthcare, construction, leisure and hospitality, while federal government jobs declined.
By the numbers:
- The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, from 4.4% in February.
- The labor force participation rate declined marginally to 61.9% from 62.0%.
- Average hourly earnings increased 0.2% month over month and approximately 3.5% year over year, indicating ongoing wage growth despite the weakening job market.
- In March, the Consumer Price Index rose 3.3% year over year, up from the 2.4% gain the previous month and 0.9% month over month.
- The Producer Price Index rose 0.5% month over month in March, and prices for final demand climbed 4% year over year, which is the biggest 12-month gain since February 2023.
The big picture: The labor market has shown a mixed pattern in 2026 — in January, it increased by 133,000, then dropped by 160,000 in February and rose again by 178,000 in March.
Why it matters: Employers are likely responding to mixed signals in the economy, causing variability in their reactions.
- Adding pressure: Higher oil prices and a decline in the S&P 500 are tied to the conflict in the Middle East. Ongoing tariffs are adding to cost pressures, while AI has a modest effect on overall employment levels.
- Adding stability: Consumer spending and GDP growth are continuing at a stable pace.
Looking ahead: The labor market is likely to continue experiencing uneven monthly growth.
Ocean freight enters a controlled-but-rising cost environment
Ocean freight entered the second quarter with controlled but rising costs compared to recent years. The Drewry World Container Index hit $2,309 per container in early April, up 18% in the last 30 days.
Why it matters: This increase is driven by fuel volatility, carrier capacity discipline and frequent surcharge changes rather than a demand surge.
U.S. container import volumes rebounded sharply in March, up 12% from February, and remain more than 30% above prepandemic levels, indicating baseline container flows and demand have settled at a structurally higher demand post-pandemic.
Zoom in: U.S. import transit times have remained relatively stable despite higher volumes, suggesting most major ports are keeping pace with elevated demand, but the network remains fragile to disruptions.
Yes, but maritime risks in the Middle East, including conditions in the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea and Suez Canal, are leading to rerouting, longer transit times and war-risk insurance.
Commodity market volatility persists
Commodity markets in April remain elevated and volatile due to geopolitical disruptions, higher energy costs and sustained infrastructure-driven demand. While some materials are showing signs of easing, overall pricing remains sensitive to freight, fuel and supply risks, particularly for energy-intensive materials.
Between the lines:
- Tariffs on steel and aluminum imports under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act remain in effect and have not been overturned by the Supreme Court’s decision on tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.
- Demand linked to electrification, grid investment and hyperscale data center buildouts continues to support pricing and tighten availability even when broader industrial activity is mixed.
By the numbers: Copper is hovering near $6 per pound, relatively flat from the prior month but still well above prior-year levels. Aluminum prices are reaching multiyear highs, supported by a sharp increase in energy costs. Steel prices are seeing modest increases, and lead times remain elevated as construction activity improves seasonally.
PVC and lumber remain relatively stable, as residential construction demand stays uneven, higher mortgage rates continue, and ongoing mill closures and production cuts in parts of North America impact lumber. Lead times for PVC continue to run longer for certain categories, especially large-diameter conduit and special-radius bends, where production scheduling and project timing can tighten supply.
Trucking market tightens amid rising costs
The U.S. trucking market is tightening faster than expected after two years of softer conditions, driven by sustained carrier exits, elevated fuel costs and a reduced carrier base across both van and flatbed equipment.
Zoom in: Flatbed capacity is now the tightest in roughly four years, driven by fewer carriers, aging equipment and strong demand tied to construction and energy markets, such as data center buildouts and other hyperscale projects. Per-mile spot rates have risen to their highest point since 2022, driven by rising fuel costs and constrained demand.
Why it matters: Capacity has been slowly eroding through carrier exits and cautious fleet investment, and that erosion becomes quickly apparent when the market encounters normal seasonal demand, such as spring construction, weather disruptions and regional surges.
Fuel volatility raises carrier operating costs and pushes shipper costs through fuel surcharges; it also reduces effective capacity as marginal carriers become uneconomic.
By the numbers: The DAT flatbed load-to-truck ratio has surged 34% over the past month and more than 80% compared to last year, while diesel fuel prices have risen 32% over the past 30 days.
What to expect:
- Forecasts for the rest of 2026 suggest the trucking market will remain capacity-constrained — particularly on flatbeds — along with a shrinking CDL population.
- As with diesel fuel price uncertainty, expect transportation costs to remain elevated over 2024 and 2025 levels.
- A significant reduction in the available CDL driver population over the coming year, due to state enforcement following the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration’s final rule on non-domiciled CDL drivers, which took effect March 16.