Official economic report delays continue
The federal government shutdown has delayed or paused the release of key economic data for the second month in a row. The 43-day shutdown ended late on November 12 after the House passed the Senate’s temporary spending bill and President Trump signed it into law.
Why it matters: The delay affects reports from the Labor and Commerce departments, including job, inflation and consumer data. The absence of official economic data leaves economists and Federal Reserve (Fed) officials relying on alternative sources from the private sector, which reveals only a fraction of the state of the labor market during the shutdown.
The Fed estimates put the inflation rate at 2.8% for September, above its 2% target. Fed Chair Jerome Powell notes that, despite the lack of federal data, alternative sources suggest the economic outlook hasn’t changed significantly, with inflation expected to decrease gradually.
By the numbers: ADP reports a modest increase of 42,000 jobs in the private sector in October, slightly above expectations of 32,000. Goldman Sachs said U.S. job growth likely slowed to 50,000 new jobs in October from 85,000 in September. Meanwhile, LinkedIn and Indeed note a downturn in hiring and job postings. Bank of America found no significant further slowdown in the labor market. The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago estimates the unemployment rate edged up only slightly in October.
What they’re saying: Now that the federal government is reopened, it could take some time for statistical agencies to release key economic reports. The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the jobs report for September will be released on Thursday, November 20. The White House suggested it may not be possible to release the Consumer Price Index or the job reports for October, but some economists argue a delayed report is still possible, though it may include asterisks, as agencies had to pause new data collection in October during the shutdown.
U.S. container imports decline in October
U.S container imports in October totaled 2.3 million TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units), down 0.1% from September and down 7.5% from last year.
Why it matters: This is only the second October in the last decade to record a month-over-month decline.
Imports from China rose more than 5% from the previous month but fell 16.3% as importers remain cautious amid ongoing U.S. trade policies.
The big picture: With the recent U.S.-China trade deal, analysts are hopeful there’s potential for import volumes to stabilize in the near term.
More shipping news:
- The United States and China suspended port fees on each other for one year and paused investigations into maritime practices as part of the U.S.-China trade truce and a sign of easing tensions between the two nations. However, some labor unions oppose this decision, arguing it would hurt efforts to revive the U.S. maritime sector and give China “a free pass.”
- The Trump administration opposed a plan originated by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to impose carbon emissions fees on shipowners. The plan was part of a global emissions-cutting strategy to decarbonize the shipping industry by imposing fees on shipowners to go toward investments in low-carbon fuels and ships that run on them. Last month, IMO member countries were supposed to vote to ratify the plan, but it was postponed for one year after President Trump announced he would not support it.
New FMCSA rule impact on the trucking market
On November 10, a federal appeals court put a temporary pause on the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) emergency interim final rule, which limits the issuance of non-domiciled commercial driver’s license (CDL), as the court reviews the case.
Zoom out: The FMCSA issued this interim final rule in late September, which went into effect immediately and restricts “non-domiciled” CDLs to only those with H-2A, H-2B, or E-2 visas, with licenses expiring with the visa or after one year.
Why it matters: The rule aims to enhance driver safety and national security but could lead to significant disruptions in the U.S. trucking market, affecting up to 200,000 drivers.
The big picture: States that fail to enforce the new regulation risk losing federal highway funds, like California and Texas, which have high concentrations of non-domiciled drivers.
The bottom line: If the appeals court upholds the rule, approximately 5% of all U.S. CDL holders may be unable to renew their licenses, likely affecting load-to-truck ratios and per-mile rates.
Commodity market faces mixed pressures
Conflicting forces are at play across commodity markets: Supply, demand and policy factors continue to coalesce, impacting commodity prices and availability.
The big picture: Strong demand, a weak U.S. dollar, lower interest rate and the U.S.-China trade deal have helped push prices up, while oversupply, high inventories of lumber and specialty resin and slow demand in China have put downward pressure.
Yes, but production disruptions, capacity limits and regulatory changes can restrict material flow and affect supply and availability.
Commodities market roundup:
- Copper prices have surged more than 25% this year, supported by a weak U.S. dollar and lower interest rates. After a series of incidents at key mines this year, the International Copper Study Group warns of a copper supply shortage in 2026.
- The Aluminum Association is urging the United States, Mexico and Canada to unify their aluminum tariff policies to prevent countries from circumventing U.S. trade policies and ensure fair trilateral trade practices. China’s smelter capacity is struggling to keep up with demand, pushing it to expand production abroad, raising concerns about supply or a greater reliance on China’s output.
- Steel prices are up approximately 18% year over year. The World Steel Association expects global steel demand to remain flat for the rest of this year compared to the prior year, with a modest rebound projected for 2026.
- PVC prices remained relatively stable during the Atlantic hurricane season, which is ending with no hurricanes making landfall in the mainland United States.
- Lumber prices dropped below $520 per thousand board feet, the lowest since September 2024, partially caused by the expected autumn demand slowdown, which coincided with an unexpected large supply surplus.
- West Texas Intermediate futures saw a multi-day increase, despite prices falling year over year. The increases were driven by optimism that the federal government would reopen with the Senate’s temporary resolution, strong demand for gasoline and diesel, and higher fuel premiums. Russia’s oil shipments by sea are falling after the United States imposed sanctions on top Russian oil companies.
One more thing: Manufacturers push for AI and energy reform
A report from the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) calls on policymakers to reform energy policy, including an effort to streamline permitting for AI and energy projects.
Why it matters: NAM argues that AI has become integral to modern manufacturing and an overhaul of the permitting process is key to fulfilling President Trump’s energy agenda and giving the United States a competitive edge in global AI innovation. But current permitting procedures, such as unclear timelines, a lack of federal agency coordination and more, continue to hinder the progress of AI and energy projects.
Zoom in: NAM reports that 51% of manufacturers surveyed already use AI, while 80% believe it will become essential to grow their business by 2030, and 94% support permitting reform.
The association asserts manufacturing is at the intersection of comprehensive permitting reform, energy generation build-out and infrastructure. Preventing regulatory overreach will allow manufacturers to innovate and grow their businesses.